經濟轉型: 消費國變出口商,世界工廠變消費國 / Global Economy: Import, Export and Consumerism

Below is the transcript of my comments posted on Space's Nov 16, 2009 blog article entitled "威士忌 Whisky 為自己"
(http://mindnecessity.blogspot.com/2009/11/whisky-apec-suntory-hall-gag-obamaobama.html)

Space:

Thank you for putting all the relevant info in one place. I did read your WHOLE article, incl Prez Obama's speech.

In his address to the target audience in and outside of Japan, incl Democrats and Republicans alike in the US, there are many foreign policy messages that seem to be key to the future relationships btwn the US and her allies, enemies, and those in btwn.

Prez Obama mentioned China in his speech many times, partly to deal head-on with Japan's fear of a renewed US-China relationship at the expense of Japanese interest, but also to send a strong signal to Beijing prior to his visit. Of course, let's not be naïve and think that this was the first trial balloon launched to seek a Chinese reaction. For a major Presidential speech that was expected to garner world attention, a lot of bilateral leg-work would have been done by diplomats through official and unofficial channels. Also, one should not underestimate the pre-emptive statement made by China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson on November 11th re China's positions on Tibet and other issues. All to say, there had been messages back and forth btwn the two countries before Prez Obama stepped onto Chinese soil.

I think the key point in his speech abt China is that the US intends to change the imbalanced US-China trade relationship. Currently, US consumerism is out of control and the World's Factory, China, is reaping the profit by importing billion dollars of goods into the US while keeping the value of the Renminbi (artificially) low.

I note that you've already posted a lot of info on Prez Obama's visit to China. So I will save some of my comments for later.

Attachment: A report from Ming Pao for your info.

【明報專訊2009年11月15日】

明言經濟轉型 消費國變出口商

奧巴馬在東京的演說中，向亞洲國家傳達的一個重要經濟信息，就是美國將加緊推動全球及區域性的自由貿易談判，希望令美國未來轉型成出口導向型經濟體，亞洲經濟增長也不能再依賴美國消費者。他說﹕「這次衰退其中一個重要教訓是，高度依賴美國消費者，以及亞洲靠出口推動經濟增長，都存在局限性。」對美國來說，這個新轉變將是多儲蓄一點、減少財赤和擴大出口，而亞洲國家應致力改善對美貿易失衡。他強調，美國願與亞洲國家共同努力，促成「多哈回合」談判成功，促進世界經濟平衡發展。美經濟學家指出，近年美國在亞洲貿易合作上裹足不前，令中國和亞洲有機會自行大搞自由貿易協議，華府已錯過了「上船」機遇，奧巴馬至少要在經濟層次上，重啟與亞洲的合作。

促亞洲改善對美貿易失衡:

雖然奧巴馬在演說中沒談到貿易糾紛和人民幣問題，但現實中，美國貿易保護主義問題繼續升溫。繼對中國進口輪胎徵重稅後，美國國際貿易委員會周五也初步裁定，中國和墨西哥無縫銅管在美國「存在傾銷行為，對美國業界造成損害」。美國一些廠家要求向中墨兩國銅管產品開徵最多逾85％的反傾銷稅。

(Source: 明報2009年11月15日 星期日 05:10 hk.news.yahoo.com/article/091114/4/f6ax.html)