(L-R) Members of China's new Politburo Standing Committee Zhang Gaoli, Liu Yunshan, Zhang Dejiang, Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, Yu Zhengsheng and Wang Qishan meet journalists in Beijing's Great Hall of the People on Nov 15, 2012. (Photo credit: UK The Telegraph)
以下是我在網友 Space 登貼的文章
"隔代欽點接班人" 処之留言:
For several thousand years, China was able to follow its own traditional political process because the Middle Kingdom was generally successful in isolating itself from foreign influence. Even when the empire was invaded, the invaders were eventually assimilated.
However, the accelerated pace of globalization in terms of trade, investment, technology, conflicts, health, environment, etc, will probably invalidate a straight line extrapolation of the past into the future.
Even with the great firewall of China and other state-controlled communication measures, I am not sure if the Middle Kingdom's virtual border will remain impermeable to foreign political ideas and influence.
Grooming the next generation of political successors is actually not a bad idea. The issue is whether the selection/appointment process will be merit-, ideology-, power struggle-, and/or princeling-based.
Haricot (November 16, 2012 1:28:00 PM)
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Related info/links:
- Wall street journal - CHINA NEWS
- Updated November 15, 2012, 1:31 p.m. ET
Ex-Leader Wins in Beijing Power Play
Party Elder Jiang Had Heavy Hand In the Selection
BEIJING—In the chess game of Chinese politics, the new Communist Party leadership unveiled on Thursday may have been the last gambit of a grand master: the 86-year-old former president and party general secretary, Jiang Zemin.
Mr. Jiang was thought to be on his death bed last year, but shook off his illness and a potentially damaging scandal to ensure that the new seven-man Politburo Standing Committee—the top governing body—is once again dominated by his protégés and allies.
That means that Xi Jinping—the new party chief who has close ties to Mr. Jiang—should have a freer hand to tackle vested economic and bureaucratic interests than his predecessor, Hu Jintao, did over the last decade, according to party insiders and analysts.
Getty Images
Xi Jinping, left, and Li Keqiang greet the media at the Great Hall of the People on Thursday in Beijing.
The question is whether the new leaders linked to Mr. Jiang are more interested in replicating the aggressive economic reforms he pursued in the 1990s, or preserving the profits that have accrued to many members of the political elite since then, the insiders and analysts said.
And the next move in the game belongs to Mr. Hu, whose allies lost out in the battle for Standing Committee seats this year but are in prime spots to join the body in 2017, according to party insiders and political analysts.
In giving up his post as head of the Central Military Commission, Mr. Hu indicated that he would not retain the same level of influence as Mr. Jiang, who retained the military post for two years after retiring as party chief in 2002.
But Mr. Hu is 17 years younger than Mr. Jiang and may have burnished his reputation within the party, by becoming the first leader in its history to give up all formal powers in one go—helping to institutionalize a succession process long marred by violence and intrigue.
China's Leadership Change
See an interactive guide to China's 18th Communist Party Congress, read more about the outgoing leaders and some candidates for promotion.
Mr. Xi, who is considered a "princeling" because his father was a famous revolutionary leader, is one of five members of the new Standing Committee with close ties to Mr. Jiang, who was party chief from 1989-2002.
But only Mr. Xi and Li Keqiang, the expected future premier who is Mr. Hu's main ally, will remain on the body after 2017—as all the five incoming members will be able to serve just one five-year term for age reasons—raising the prospect of another shift in the factional balance of power.
Mr. Jiang is seen as the figurehead of a loose grouping of leaders, many of whom are princelings, while Mr. Hu heads a rival grouping, most of whose members don't have any revolutionary ancestry and rose instead through the ranks of the Communist Youth League.
"The new Standing Committee is not balanced," said Cheng Li, an expert on Chinese politics at the Brookings Institution. "There will be a backlash against Jiang Zemin and his princeling faction."
China's biggest leadership change in a decade comes at a critical juncture for the country as it confronts a slowing economy, escalating tensions with neighboring countries, an aging population and mounting public outrage over corruption and abuse of power.
It also comes in a year of extraordinary scandals for the party, most notably the political downfall of Bo Xilai, a prominent princeling and onetime Jiang protégé whose wife was convicted in August of murdering a British businessman.
Mr. Jiang's political influence appeared to be waning in the immediate aftermath of the Bo scandal as departing and retired leaders negotiated and plotted to ensure the promotion of their favorites to the new leadership.
But Mr. Hu also suffered a political blow in March when one of his closest aides, Ling Jihua, tried in vain to cover up a car accident in which his son died while driving a Ferrari at high speed through Beijing.
In his final speech as party chief last week, Mr. Hu warned that official corruption had become such a serious problem it could "cause the collapse of the party and the fall of the state."
Mr. Xi also highlighted corruption in his first speech as party leader, which analysts said was comparatively frank and less laden with Communist jargon than many of Mr. Hu's.
"Our party faces many severe challenges, and there are also many pressing problems within the party that need to be resolved, particularly corruption, being divorced from the people, going through formalities and bureaucratism caused by some party officials," Mr. Xi said.
"We must make every effort to solve these problems. The whole party must stay on full alert."
Party insiders say that there has been mounting frustration within their ranks—and especially among prominent princelings—over the lack of meaningful economic reform under the tenure of Mr. Hu and departing Premier Wen Jiabao.
Their critics often point out that Mr. Jiang presided over a period of bold reforms, including a sweeping shake-up of the state sector, a restructuring of the banking industry, and a successful campaign to win China entry to the World Trade Organization.
But Mr. Jiang, too, is criticized by some in the party for failing to make China's political system more transparent and responsive, and for undermining formal power structures by continuing to meddle in Chinese politics long after retiring as party chief.
Party insiders and analysts say Mr. Xi should be in a stronger position to implement meaningful economic change than his predecessor, whose authority has been persistently undermined by Mr. Jiang over the past 10 years, according to party insiders.
The smaller Standing Committee should make it easier to forge consensus among his peers, a majority of whom share a common patron. None of its members are considered ideologues or strong personalities who could cause conflict on the leadership body.
And with Mr. Hu gone from the Central Military Commission, Mr. Xi will have a firmer hold on power right at the start of his rule.
Kevin Rudd, the former Australian prime minister who has met Mr. Xi several times, said he thought the incoming Chinese leader understood that reform was "fundamental to the party's survival" and would play a more active role in the economy than his predecessor.
"Xi understands the imperative" he said. "You need to be engaged to provide political momentum to drive hard-edged economic reform."
Mr. Xi may have a ready-made economic agenda. Premier Wen Jiabao has ordered up two big initiatives by the end of the year. One is a planned overhaul of rural law designed to reduce the power of government officials to expropriate rural land and to improve compensation for farmers whose land is expropriated. Another is a proposal to reduce China's gaping income inequality. The latter is expected to call for an increase in taxes on the wealthy and, perhaps, a cap on salaries of top executives at state-owned firms, according to accounts in Chinese state media.
But it is far from clear that either will emerge. The inequality plan has been stalled since 2004, in part, because of opposition by state-owned firms, say the media reports.
Nomura economist Zhiwei Zhang says one hint about the direction of reform will come next month when the Central Economic Working Conference sets the target for 2013 GDP growth. If it is cut to 7% from this year's 7.5% goal, that may mean the government is willing to accept slower growth while it makes changes needed to rebalance the economy away from reliance on exports and investment, the analyst said.
The prospects for political reform appear less bright, according to many analysts.
They point to the exclusion from the Standing Committee of the two figures with the strongest track record on that front—Li Yuanchao, the head of the party's organization department, and Wang Yang, party chief of Guangdong province.
Mr. Li has overseen pilot schemes to enhance democracy within the party. Mr. Wang won plaudits last year for reaching a negotiated settlement when a village in Guangdong rebelled over land grabs by local officials.
"The free thinkers didn't make it on the standing committee," said Barry Naughton, a University of California at San Diego expert on the Chinese economy who is teaching now at Beijing's Tsinghua University.
"We have a group of similar men. They're politicians and practical deal makers."
But Messrs. Li and Wang—who are both considered close to Mr. Hu—are likely to be candidates for promotion to the Standing Committee in 2017, political analysts say.
Several other allies of Mr. Hu are also now eligible after being promoted on Thursday to the party's Politburo—its top 25 leaders. Mr. Ling, the close aide to Mr. Hu whose son was involved in the Ferrari crash, didn't make the Politburo, suggesting his political career has plateaued.
But among those who did was Hu Chunhua, the party chief of Inner Mongolia who isn't related to Hu Jintao but worked with him closely in Tibet and is now considered a front-runner to be promoted to the Standing Committee in 2017 and to take over as party chief in 2022.
(
Source: Wall Street Journal
Ex-Leader Wins in Beijing Power Play)
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UK The Telegraph:
Profiles - Who are Xi-Jinping and China's six other new leaders
Xi Jinping is the only top Chinese leader to have grown up in the luxury of Zhonganhai, the walled private compound where the Communist elite lives, and in the scratching poverty of the countryside.
Until he was nine years old, Mr Xi travelled in the limousine of his father, Xi Zhongxun, a vice premier who had been the founder of one of the Communist guerrilla armies in north China. But in 1962 the elder Xi was purged for supporting the publication of a book that was felt to be critical of Chairman Mao.
He was held under house arrest until 1978, while his son was sent, at the age of 16, to work on a farm in Shaanxi, then one of China's poorest provinces. The farmers liked him: he won wrestling matches against them and was able to carry shoulder poles of heavy 110lb buckets across the mountains.
He left seven years later, as the Cultural Revolution ended. Later, he said: "It was emotional. It was a mood. And when the ideals of the Cultural Revolution could not be realised, it proved an illusion."
He then studied chemical engineering at Tsinghua university and joined the army upon graduation. His path to the top has taken him through almost every level of administration in the provinces of Hebei, Fujian, Zhejiang and saw him briefly run Shanghai. In Hebei, he was nicknamed "God of Wealth" after building a theme park based on Journey to the West, the Chinese classic. He also developed a reputation for cutting through red tape.
Described by many as a good man, and as a chip off the old block, Mr Xi has been opaque about his beliefs or policies, whether economic or political.
However, he has closer ties to the West than his predecessor, Hu Jintao. His first wife is thought to live in England, the daughter of a former Chinese ambassador to London. He has a sister in Canada, and his daughter with Pei Liyuan, a Chinese folk singer, is studying at Harvard university.
(Please read The Telegraph for further info)
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